Methodological module
Pre-mortem
Before committing, we are testing how this could fail.
- When it helps
- Use it when a plan is almost ready, enthusiasm is high, or the cost of an avoidable failure is meaningful.
- Origin
- Pre-mortem · Gary Klein: prospective hindsight
What this module does
A pre-mortem uses prospective hindsight: imagine the plan has already failed, then explain why. This makes socially awkward or easily ignored risks easier to name before commitment.
How to use it
- Set a realistic future date.
- Assume the plan failed badly by that date.
- List plausible causes independently and without debate.
- Rank causes by likelihood and impact.
- Assign one prevention or early-warning signal to the top risks.
- Name an owner and review date.
Practical example
Situation
A team is preparing a small product launch in six weeks.
Result
The likely failure is not “bad marketing” but delayed onboarding copy. The team moves copy review two weeks earlier and adds a readiness checkpoint.
Limitations
- It can amplify anxiety unless the exercise ends with actions.
- It surfaces plausible risks, not every possible risk.
- The group needs psychological safety to name uncomfortable causes.
Standalone template
Copy these prompts and work through them without Selecton.
Future date: …
The plan failed because: …
Top risk by likelihood × impact: …
Prevention: …
Early warning: …
Owner / review date: …
How it fits into Selecton
The app keeps a reliable five-stage baseline and now adds an adaptive-methods-v1 layer: typed method cards can be selected automatically or received as an explicit lens from a method page. Full non-linear routing and effectiveness measurement remain under evaluation.
Auto, adaptation, and combinations
The intended Auto mode selects one primary method for the next useful move, based on the state of the decision. A route may use different modules in sequence—for example GROW to clarify a goal, weighted criteria to compare options, then a pre-mortem to test the plan. They are not blended into an opaque prompt: every transition should remain explainable and reversible to the baseline route.